Economics has lost its way
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Tweetstorm: Economics has lost its way
By Per Bylund
Posted May 14, 2020
EconomicsĀ has lost its way and made the study both impotent and of lacking relevance. It is easy to see how and why if we first recognize that proper economic thinking takes place two steps beyond the apparent. Non-economists typically take none of these steps. Modern economicsĀ
has lost the ability to go beyond the first step. This can, I think, be explained by its increasing adoption and reliance on mathematical and equilibrium models, which typically disallow the second step. What are the steps? They involve going beyond what is directly observed toĀ
uncover, first, the immediate or atemporal tradeoff and, second, the temporal dimension of the tradeoff in an overall process. Bastiat famously distinguished good and bad economists by their ability (and inability, respectively) to see the āunseenā. What he meant by this is thatĀ
there is always a tradeoff: something else could have taken place were it not for the immediate cause of observed situation. In other words, it focuses on the proper economizing through imagining the counterfactual. Proper social theorizing can get nowhereĀ bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.ā¦Ā
without this fundamental insight. For Bastiat, it is illustrated by the shopkeeperās broken window. Since it was broken, the shopkeeper will give the glacier more business. Isnāt that a good thing? Yes, considering only what we can see then this obviously means more business forĀ
the glacier, who in turn can, perhaps, invest in his business, buy more inputs, etc. But, notes Bastiat, to be able to assess this situation from an economic point of view, we must also take into account what would otherwise have happened. If we only consider the outcome of theĀ
broken window, then it would appear as though destroying things would be overall a good investment. Or, to put it differently, a war would make us much more prosperous than peace. Similarly, by analogy, you should put your own house on fire. This is a preposterous thought, and itĀ
is preposterous because it does not consider the counterfactual. Bastiat notes that had the shopkeeperās window not been broken, he would have done something else with that money, perhaps bought shoes. So by breaking the window, the glacier gets more business but the shoemakerĀ
gets less. In both cases, there would be beneficial exchange. So we cannot say that breaking stuff is better because it leads to certain actions. In fact, it is worse because the shopkeeper (and āsocietyā) loses the value of the window. Breaking the window sets us back; it doesĀ
not take us forward (unless we are the glacier). But while Bastiatās point is important, it is not enough to properly think about the economy. In fact, modern economic models and equilibrium theorizing is based on this fundamental tradeoff. Economists understand and can point toĀ
the real tradeoff, which explains why they are often disliked by those who conceive of quick fixes and present them as solutions because they base their reasoning solely on the āseenā. Taking the āunseenā into account changes the analysis, and makes it much harder to improveĀ
things. The difference between modern economics and proper economic thinking lies in taking the next step after having arrived at the āunseenā: to what I refer to as the āunrealizedā. Rather than comparatively simple comparisons (or comparative statics) taking the immediateĀ
tradeoff into account, the āunrealizedā recognizes that the economy is an ever unfolding process of actions that, fundamentally, are economizing using the imaginable tradeoffs. This goes beyond the multiplier effect that is semi-present in Bastiatās story. Even the multiplier,Ā
that an investment spreads through the economy as the money changes hands, only considers (and follows) one change. The rest of the economy is (theoretically) held constant as the money āripplesā are traced step by step. This is a simplification, and it is an important one toĀ
recognize since it is only a simplification. It can help to uncover a specific process, or the implications of a specific action, but it does not help us understand the overall market process. The āunrealizedā recognizes the historic processes and the tradeoffs in it as well asĀ
the future. In other words, it doesnāt simply take our situation as it is and theorizes from it, but asks where this situation comes from. Specifically, the economy is all of our actions and interactions aggregated. But our choices (and our actions) are made in reaction to theĀ
options we are presented with. The shopkeeper in Bastiatās example had the choice between replacing the window and buying shoes. But what else could there have been, and what else *would* there have been were it not for the many specific prior influences on peopleās choices? ThisĀ
becomes a necessary tool when assessing the impact of historic regulations and, more importantly, the possible outcome of introducing new regulations. Perhaps we want certain restrictions on a specific unsavory behavior. But what does this restriction mean in terms of the choicesĀ
that can be made by people in the future? It is not as simple as Bastiatās tradeoff between window and shoes. The glacierās won business leads to different behavior than had he not won this business. It, in turn, affects choices made by yet others, whose āchoice setā (the typesĀ
and number of choices available to them in any situation) is affected by the glacierās actions. Had Bill Gates not formed a business around MSDOS and Windows, what options for employment would young people of today have? This is important because it traces the āripplesā ofĀ
actions and changes through the economy over time, and recognizes that there is more than one tradeoff, that one choice influences oneās and other peopleās future choices. For example, it can be argued that any forced change can have enormous consequences in seemingly unrelatedĀ
situations, as I do in my book, The Seen, the Unseen, and the Unrealized: How Regulations Affect Our Everyday Lives. For instance, the sweatshop is often argued to be much better employment for people in developing countries than any and all options they https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739194591/
have. This is true, and the argument emphasizes the tradeoff these people are facing: they choose between working in the sweatshop or something much more terrible. But what this analysis fails to recognize is why these are the only options available. Why is it that sweatshops canĀ
be established in poor countries, but other options are not nearly as beneficial? If one sweatshop can function in some location, why are there not many sweatshops there to compete for workers with (even) higher wages and better work conditions? It should be obvious that theĀ
present economy can facilitate the one sweatshop, which means it can also facilitate more sweatshops. So why is this not the case? Why do those other job opportunities remain unrealized? The answer lies in costs and frictions imposed on the economy *somewhere*. But as it is anĀ
integrated system these impositions may not be where the sweatshops are. In fact, the sweatshop phenomenon can be a result of, for example, international trade regulations and trade agreements, and even regulations in other nations entirely. What appears to be a low-cost policyĀ
or regulation in one country can indirectly affect options for distant peoples and thus their conditions. It is thus possible (even likely) that domestic regulations in developing countries are the cause, or at last contribute to, the lack of economic development in otherĀ
countries. A restriction on one person generates different choices than otherwise would have been, which changes the choice set of all those affected: those who are āstrippedā of options that otherwise would be available, and those who āgainā options. These are real distortionsĀ
that must be taken into account to properly understand regulations. And proper economic reasoning recognizes these processes, and their vast and important effects. We may not be able to trace them in detail, or measure them empirically, but they must be considered when studyingĀ
and attempting to understand the economy. Proper economic thinkers take two steps ahead, from the seen through the unseen to the unrealized.